Hello everyone. Well Monmouth has started and most of you should be able to watch it on TVG whether you like it or not. I(like Monmouth Park Blog) have a knack for handicapping this track and I hope to bring about some good hits for you all this meet. Hopefully you all have entered the draw for the tickets to the BC.........i know me and my degenerate friends may need an internet auction site to sell off all of our extra tickets and a home equity loan to pay for them up front.
Well I'm here and i'm looking for hits. Let's make some money everyone........and remember, if i post it here, i'm playing it.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Results from Sunday
Some days you hate this game. Our pick 4 (albeit one that ended up chalky) got beat by a DQ of the 4 in the third race. The track played a little quirky too with the closers not hitting the board as much. I have to say that the late pick 4 looked ugly to me and due to a previous engagement I didn't have the energy to walk through the whole thing. I got through three races with 4 horses in the first two and 3 in the third. Turns out that I would have had the first three legs. They paid: 20.20, 6.00, and 16.80 respectively. That being said......I don't know if I would have had the $30 winner in the last for a pick 4 that paid $6,279 for a buck.
Oh how it would have been sweet to have bet it though. BUT.....when you get beat by a DQ in the first one, you get the feeling that someone doesn't want you to be betting that day. Then you start questioning betting $200 on a pick 4 that you're not going to get to see cus you're gonna be out having dinner with your beautiful girlfriend. Don't get me wrong, I had the funds after that $1596, $775, $117, $175 and $317(non-published) hit from the day before......but still....i was just feeling a little too disgusted after losing a pick 4 by a DQ.
I'll be back soon to put a couple together for Churchill this Saturday and I hope to be cashing some money with you all soon.
BTW........just got my second tax form in three days from 4njbets.com for my hits over the past three weeks. I hope that some of you joined me as well. ADIOS.
Oh how it would have been sweet to have bet it though. BUT.....when you get beat by a DQ in the first one, you get the feeling that someone doesn't want you to be betting that day. Then you start questioning betting $200 on a pick 4 that you're not going to get to see cus you're gonna be out having dinner with your beautiful girlfriend. Don't get me wrong, I had the funds after that $1596, $775, $117, $175 and $317(non-published) hit from the day before......but still....i was just feeling a little too disgusted after losing a pick 4 by a DQ.
I'll be back soon to put a couple together for Churchill this Saturday and I hope to be cashing some money with you all soon.
BTW........just got my second tax form in three days from 4njbets.com for my hits over the past three weeks. I hope that some of you joined me as well. ADIOS.
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Sunday 4/29 Hollywood Early
Hey everyone. Getting back to it after a few days off (blogging that is....not betting). I was out all day yesterday but played the pick 4's at Hollywood and hit the first of a $45 bet for $317. Sorry I didn't get that one out to ya. Oh well. You will all have to give me a little time to get all my s*@% together as I'm still learning this stuff and I take it pretty seriously if I'm gonna put them out for anyone to see.
I think that I've finally figured out Hollywood. I say finally like the meet's been going for weeks not days! Here's the breakdown but bear in mind(as always), these are animals and are a little unpredictable, but I've gone back and reviewed all the races so far and these things seem to prove reliable:
6 Furlong Races: Being close is not bad. Lone speed has been ok and stalkers have been right there if there are few of them and the fractions are fair(22, 23 range). However!.... beware if two or more horses have the speed and duel. It seems as though every race that has had a split of 21 or so has died and a deep closer has won the race....not stalkers either, just heavy closers.
6 and 1/2 to 7 furlongs: Bet the stalkers or proven closers even if there might be lone speed. They get a long run at the front runners and have been very reliable in winning these races. (Watch this one for the picks we put up for the early pick 4....we're trying to beat some chalk baby!!!!!!!!!)
Mile to 1 and 1/8: Stalkers have done very well. Here's how it breaks down fraction wise: 23/24, 48/1:12........speed and stalkers killing it. However, change that to 46/1:10,1:11, and stalkers and heavy closers are killing it. BTW,,,,,,this seems to be true for both class and crap.
6F Turf or so: lone speed and heavy closers. not a lot of these races but just in case
Turf Routes: unless you are absolutely lone speed.............be at the back of the pack. That being said. The rails been out until today. I would say to add a stalker to the mix(obviously only in well match field without a lone quality speed) as the shorter the course, the better the speed looks
Take all that in and convert it to the Pick 4. Here we go:
Race 1: 6,4,2 the 6 boasts top beyers, a 1:10 bullet a week ago, and Sadler hitting at 36% on 44 starters with cushion. However, he's the speed and if we want to stick with our style that fits, I think we have to go with the 4. He's got the style, the beyers, a 46 flat work a week ago and should come mowing them down in the lane. No idea with 2 as was bad in gate last and closed strong. Throw him in
Race 2: 1,6 The one could be a beast. Boast top last beyer (2 for 2 on turf), great style and great jock in GG. Would single except that we might need a closer to stick to the style and pace should be fast. THrow in the 6 to cover us as the best closer.
Race 3: 4,5,9 Love the 5 for the style, 2nd off and draws GG again. I think that he's the only true closer. Throw in the 9 and the 4 as legit stalker closers who could sweep and win.
Race 4: 1,2,5 A lot are pitching this as a duel between Greg's Gold(5) and Areyou talkintome(2) which could be the case. but the 1 is popping sick workouts for Julio and could sit the perfect trip for what has been winning at this distance.
2,4,6/1,6/9,5,4/1,2,5 for $54 bucks. Play it strong as we could get some upsets.
I think that I've finally figured out Hollywood. I say finally like the meet's been going for weeks not days! Here's the breakdown but bear in mind(as always), these are animals and are a little unpredictable, but I've gone back and reviewed all the races so far and these things seem to prove reliable:
6 Furlong Races: Being close is not bad. Lone speed has been ok and stalkers have been right there if there are few of them and the fractions are fair(22, 23 range). However!.... beware if two or more horses have the speed and duel. It seems as though every race that has had a split of 21 or so has died and a deep closer has won the race....not stalkers either, just heavy closers.
6 and 1/2 to 7 furlongs: Bet the stalkers or proven closers even if there might be lone speed. They get a long run at the front runners and have been very reliable in winning these races. (Watch this one for the picks we put up for the early pick 4....we're trying to beat some chalk baby!!!!!!!!!)
Mile to 1 and 1/8: Stalkers have done very well. Here's how it breaks down fraction wise: 23/24, 48/1:12........speed and stalkers killing it. However, change that to 46/1:10,1:11, and stalkers and heavy closers are killing it. BTW,,,,,,this seems to be true for both class and crap.
6F Turf or so: lone speed and heavy closers. not a lot of these races but just in case
Turf Routes: unless you are absolutely lone speed.............be at the back of the pack. That being said. The rails been out until today. I would say to add a stalker to the mix(obviously only in well match field without a lone quality speed) as the shorter the course, the better the speed looks
Take all that in and convert it to the Pick 4. Here we go:
Race 1: 6,4,2 the 6 boasts top beyers, a 1:10 bullet a week ago, and Sadler hitting at 36% on 44 starters with cushion. However, he's the speed and if we want to stick with our style that fits, I think we have to go with the 4. He's got the style, the beyers, a 46 flat work a week ago and should come mowing them down in the lane. No idea with 2 as was bad in gate last and closed strong. Throw him in
Race 2: 1,6 The one could be a beast. Boast top last beyer (2 for 2 on turf), great style and great jock in GG. Would single except that we might need a closer to stick to the style and pace should be fast. THrow in the 6 to cover us as the best closer.
Race 3: 4,5,9 Love the 5 for the style, 2nd off and draws GG again. I think that he's the only true closer. Throw in the 9 and the 4 as legit stalker closers who could sweep and win.
Race 4: 1,2,5 A lot are pitching this as a duel between Greg's Gold(5) and Areyou talkintome(2) which could be the case. but the 1 is popping sick workouts for Julio and could sit the perfect trip for what has been winning at this distance.
2,4,6/1,6/9,5,4/1,2,5 for $54 bucks. Play it strong as we could get some upsets.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
!!!!!!!!!Adjustments to early Hollywood pick 4
Hey everyone. Some key scratches have forced me to adjust my picks for race 2 and 6. \
Race 2: 1,3,7,8 the loss of the two hurts and i like the works and the stats of the 1 and 3 next best to the 2 so we'll throw them in there.
This makes the early pick 4: 1,2,3/7,8,1,3/1,5/3,6,7,9 for $96 sorry for the cost but it had to be done.
Race 6: the 7 has scratched which was our top pick. We instead go with the 3 and the 6 who tends to run better on the cushion and has been working well.
This makes the late pick 4: 6,5,1/3,6/6,5/3,7,9,12 for $48.
Good luck all.
Race 2: 1,3,7,8 the loss of the two hurts and i like the works and the stats of the 1 and 3 next best to the 2 so we'll throw them in there.
This makes the early pick 4: 1,2,3/7,8,1,3/1,5/3,6,7,9 for $96 sorry for the cost but it had to be done.
Race 6: the 7 has scratched which was our top pick. We instead go with the 3 and the 6 who tends to run better on the cushion and has been working well.
This makes the late pick 4: 6,5,1/3,6/6,5/3,7,9,12 for $48.
Good luck all.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Hollywood Late pick 4 for 4/26.........
Alright.....i'm not going down three in a row....or one in a row depending on what happened in the early pick 4....which i know is a win:-)
Here we go:
Race 5: 1,5,6 not in that order. the 5 is the horse i like the best. next is 6. then 1. if the 5's odds jump bet $10 quinella 5/6,1.
Race 6: i see no reason to go beyond the 7. however, the "experts" are picking the 3 all over so i guess that i have to as well.
Race 7: i love the 6. Declan's Moon (the 5) has been training like a monster. I hate to do it but I have to throw him in there.
Race 8: Could easily go with the 9. However, the experts are all choosing the 12 so we have to throw him in there. and we might as well throw in the 7 and the 3 cus of Dutrow's numbers with the starters.
Ok.....so it's 1,5,6/7,3/6,5/9,7,3,12 for $48. or you can go with a $10 pick 4 with 5/7/6/9. Good luck everyone if you're playing it. Adios.
Here we go:
Race 5: 1,5,6 not in that order. the 5 is the horse i like the best. next is 6. then 1. if the 5's odds jump bet $10 quinella 5/6,1.
Race 6: i see no reason to go beyond the 7. however, the "experts" are picking the 3 all over so i guess that i have to as well.
Race 7: i love the 6. Declan's Moon (the 5) has been training like a monster. I hate to do it but I have to throw him in there.
Race 8: Could easily go with the 9. However, the experts are all choosing the 12 so we have to throw him in there. and we might as well throw in the 7 and the 3 cus of Dutrow's numbers with the starters.
Ok.....so it's 1,5,6/7,3/6,5/9,7,3,12 for $48. or you can go with a $10 pick 4 with 5/7/6/9. Good luck everyone if you're playing it. Adios.
Hollywood Early for 4/26
here we go:
Race 1: we go three deep in a 5 horse field.......but i think that we have to. we go with 1,2,3 with my favorite being the three. throw in a $10 quinella 3/2,1 and thank me on friday.
Race 2: 2,7,8 and cross your fingers. an ugly race really so no reason to bet it on it's own
Race 3: the 1 could steal it at short odds (Flores and Frankel 6 for 11...not too bad) and the 5 could close if he can't. could it be any easier?
Race 4: gotta go deeper here. 3,6,7,9. put a nice win bet on the 3 if the odds are 2-1 or greater....looks like he's got a great shot.
So there we are: 1,2,3/2,7,8/1,5/3,6,7,9 for $72. I like this one. Good luck playing it.
Race 1: we go three deep in a 5 horse field.......but i think that we have to. we go with 1,2,3 with my favorite being the three. throw in a $10 quinella 3/2,1 and thank me on friday.
Race 2: 2,7,8 and cross your fingers. an ugly race really so no reason to bet it on it's own
Race 3: the 1 could steal it at short odds (Flores and Frankel 6 for 11...not too bad) and the 5 could close if he can't. could it be any easier?
Race 4: gotta go deeper here. 3,6,7,9. put a nice win bet on the 3 if the odds are 2-1 or greater....looks like he's got a great shot.
So there we are: 1,2,3/2,7,8/1,5/3,6,7,9 for $72. I like this one. Good luck playing it.
Just missed a decent one.....
check out the replay of the 7th. just played it the wrong style. all three horses we had were 1,2,3 at big odds coming into the lane but they all flattened out. oh well. i'm putting in the early and late pick 4's for Hollywood tonight (i might need Handride to bet them for me) so we hopefully can get some back with them tomorrow. I was looking at Aqueduct and Keeneland but the weather might tear apart the cards so i would rather not risk it. Good Luck all!!!!!!!
Hollywood Opening Day Late Pick 4
Hey everyone. First of all i would like to thank you for your acceptance into the TBA. It's truly an honor to me that more than one person might read my page in a day. Not to mention that I'm a part of a group that represents what i look as everything good in this sport that we all love. Thanks again.
That being said, my contribution to this esteemed collection of scholars is Pick 4 wagers. I'm putting one in today(and some of you might notice that it's about 5 minutes AFTER the first race of the sequence was run........but that was only because i had to get my bet in first....that's right, i'm playing all of these suckers so know that if i put one in, that i believe in it) without the assistance of my DRF but instead using Equibase stats so you'll have to forgive me in case i don't get it all right. Here we go:
Race 5: 2,3 The two looks like she could run and hide with an easy lead. However, the 3 is undefeated on turf and could inherit the lead if the 2 gets headed. Use both in the pick 4 but put a nice win bet on the 2 if she's above 2-1.
Race 6: 3,4,7 The 3's got the jock, the weight and the works. the 4 has been racing better, drops and has a great style for the race. the 7 has won his last three and Puype has got great 1st claim stats
Race 7: You could go deep here but i'm going with 3 cus i think that's all you need and we have to go deep late in the 8th. i go with the 1,4,and 6. Frankel and Talamo team up on the 1 for his first start in the states but he ran very well down in Brazil and should get a great trip. The 4 drops for this for the other Frankel entry and should relish the trip as she could walk them around. The 6 could be long gone. All three should be big odds
Race 8: Going with the only horses i think could win. 1,4,8,9, and 10.
So there you go: 2,3/3,4,7,/1,4,6,/1,4,8,9,10 for $90. Good luck all and thanks again for your initiation.
That being said, my contribution to this esteemed collection of scholars is Pick 4 wagers. I'm putting one in today(and some of you might notice that it's about 5 minutes AFTER the first race of the sequence was run........but that was only because i had to get my bet in first....that's right, i'm playing all of these suckers so know that if i put one in, that i believe in it) without the assistance of my DRF but instead using Equibase stats so you'll have to forgive me in case i don't get it all right. Here we go:
Race 5: 2,3 The two looks like she could run and hide with an easy lead. However, the 3 is undefeated on turf and could inherit the lead if the 2 gets headed. Use both in the pick 4 but put a nice win bet on the 2 if she's above 2-1.
Race 6: 3,4,7 The 3's got the jock, the weight and the works. the 4 has been racing better, drops and has a great style for the race. the 7 has won his last three and Puype has got great 1st claim stats
Race 7: You could go deep here but i'm going with 3 cus i think that's all you need and we have to go deep late in the 8th. i go with the 1,4,and 6. Frankel and Talamo team up on the 1 for his first start in the states but he ran very well down in Brazil and should get a great trip. The 4 drops for this for the other Frankel entry and should relish the trip as she could walk them around. The 6 could be long gone. All three should be big odds
Race 8: Going with the only horses i think could win. 1,4,8,9, and 10.
So there you go: 2,3/3,4,7,/1,4,6,/1,4,8,9,10 for $90. Good luck all and thanks again for your initiation.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Santa Anita Late 4/22
Race 7: 2,3,9
Race 8: 7,8,9,10
Race 9: 1,3,5
Race 10: 2,3,8,11
Good Luck. Let's see if we can go 4 for 4 in the pick 4's.
Race 8: 7,8,9,10
Race 9: 1,3,5
Race 10: 2,3,8,11
Good Luck. Let's see if we can go 4 for 4 in the pick 4's.
Keeneland Late Pick 4 for 4/22
Here we go again. I'm taking a stand(while still playing them) against what could be some heavy favorites but i think we need to. Here goes:
Race 6: 7 and 2 look best and have been working well.
Race 7: 2, 3, 6. 3 could be the chalk and the best but i just don't know what we have with the 2 and the 6
Race 8: 1,5,6. same thing as race 7. 5 looks the best but you just don't know what you've got with the 1 and the 6
Race 9: I'm going deep here in a race that DRF sees as a one horse race with the 3. I'm using the 3 but also i'm using the 4,8,9, and 11 in a race i couldn't figure out as there was not much form and a lot of scary trainer and angle stats.
Good Luck. Hopefully at this point you won't mind spending the $90 to bet the 2,7/2,3,6/1,5,6/3,4,8,9,11 as you're too busy counting the money from the early Aqueduct and Keeneland pick 4's .. Enjoy
Race 6: 7 and 2 look best and have been working well.
Race 7: 2, 3, 6. 3 could be the chalk and the best but i just don't know what we have with the 2 and the 6
Race 8: 1,5,6. same thing as race 7. 5 looks the best but you just don't know what you've got with the 1 and the 6
Race 9: I'm going deep here in a race that DRF sees as a one horse race with the 3. I'm using the 3 but also i'm using the 4,8,9, and 11 in a race i couldn't figure out as there was not much form and a lot of scary trainer and angle stats.
Good Luck. Hopefully at this point you won't mind spending the $90 to bet the 2,7/2,3,6/1,5,6/3,4,8,9,11 as you're too busy counting the money from the early Aqueduct and Keeneland pick 4's .. Enjoy
Aqueduct Early Pick 4
This one could be ugly.........that said, it could also pay well. Taking some what i would consider good chances and I tried to keep it as cheap as i could without sacrificing horses i think have a chance. Here we go:
Race 2: I like the 3 but have to respect style and stats for Jerkens on the 1. If the 2's odds get away from the public, might be worth a show bet.
Race 3: the 4 could sit nicely on the rail and be gone. However, what i consider cheap speed(the 7) could push the 4 so I'm also throwing in the 1/1A thinking they sit in 4th and have enough punch to pass the tiring horses in the lane.
Race 4: Weird race. Just heard that the rail was out here so the speed could hold up. I think the 4 is well placed and comes off a front runing victory at a mile in 1:35 with Jean luc picking up the ride. The 7 bumped up her beyers greatly with first route victory last out on dirt and her form looks good for the distance. the 8 for Pletcher is a real question mark as only her first start was on turf and the post is not that great. however, was second in first turf and lost to Moya who has won multiple coming back.
Race 5: Very ugly. I'm going with trainer, track and beyers in this one as there's not much form to go on. I go with the 3,5,6 and 8. I'm holding my arms out to the side right now and tilting my head to the side as if to say "why not?"
So there we go: 1,3/1,4/4,7,8/3,5,6,8 for $48. GOod luck. I'm off the rest of the day to sit by the water, eat some food, and drink some beers. Enjoy.
Race 2: I like the 3 but have to respect style and stats for Jerkens on the 1. If the 2's odds get away from the public, might be worth a show bet.
Race 3: the 4 could sit nicely on the rail and be gone. However, what i consider cheap speed(the 7) could push the 4 so I'm also throwing in the 1/1A thinking they sit in 4th and have enough punch to pass the tiring horses in the lane.
Race 4: Weird race. Just heard that the rail was out here so the speed could hold up. I think the 4 is well placed and comes off a front runing victory at a mile in 1:35 with Jean luc picking up the ride. The 7 bumped up her beyers greatly with first route victory last out on dirt and her form looks good for the distance. the 8 for Pletcher is a real question mark as only her first start was on turf and the post is not that great. however, was second in first turf and lost to Moya who has won multiple coming back.
Race 5: Very ugly. I'm going with trainer, track and beyers in this one as there's not much form to go on. I go with the 3,5,6 and 8. I'm holding my arms out to the side right now and tilting my head to the side as if to say "why not?"
So there we go: 1,3/1,4/4,7,8/3,5,6,8 for $48. GOod luck. I'm off the rest of the day to sit by the water, eat some food, and drink some beers. Enjoy.
Keeneland Early Pick 4 for 4/22
Let's see if we can get the early one for a price like last weeks. This one has the feel of choking on chalk dust even though there are some big fields. The favorite's in races 2,3,and 5 might be 3 to one or more. Let's take a look:
Race 2: i've got the 4,5,7,8, and 10 in a very wide open race. I think the odds will range from 5/2 to 6 to one for all 5 and I couldn't get myself to throw any out.
Race 3: the 1 is the speed, the 3 has the beyers and drops and the 8 has the style that should be a good fit. use all 3.
Race 4: the 5 looks like a single here. however, as a side bet you might want to cover by betting the 2 (has good form on turf down in Chile and Matz hits with these types) to win and boxed exacta with 5.
Race 5: I'm using the 8, 5, and 2 for the pick 4. the 7 and 9 are the question marks.
So there we go. 4,5,7,8,10/1,3,8/5/2,5,8 for $45. Good luck all.
Race 2: i've got the 4,5,7,8, and 10 in a very wide open race. I think the odds will range from 5/2 to 6 to one for all 5 and I couldn't get myself to throw any out.
Race 3: the 1 is the speed, the 3 has the beyers and drops and the 8 has the style that should be a good fit. use all 3.
Race 4: the 5 looks like a single here. however, as a side bet you might want to cover by betting the 2 (has good form on turf down in Chile and Matz hits with these types) to win and boxed exacta with 5.
Race 5: I'm using the 8, 5, and 2 for the pick 4. the 7 and 9 are the question marks.
So there we go. 4,5,7,8,10/1,3,8/5/2,5,8 for $45. Good luck all.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Keeneland Late
6: 3,7,8,10,12 12 looks to be the best but you never know and that wind is playing havoc out there
7: 7 and 6 in a weird race. i hate chekhov(#6) but he's been training forwardly and looks good at the distance. the 7 has the style that should benefit and a little class
8: 2 and 6 are the obvious class but i always like a horse that fires up a bigger beyer on dirt than the others did on turf and that's the 7 Shark. hit the exacta box 7/2,6 and thank me later.
9: everyone's betting the 2 but i'm not. I especially like the 6 and 9 here and can't seperate the two. they both like the poly and distance. bet this exacta box as well and bet the 9 to win/place as he should be 5-1 or so.
$60 for the $1 pick 4. good luck again.
Oh yeah.............parlay that $1596 we won on the early bet at Keeneland to play these. That's not including the tri i gave ya in the 5th as well.
7: 7 and 6 in a weird race. i hate chekhov(#6) but he's been training forwardly and looks good at the distance. the 7 has the style that should benefit and a little class
8: 2 and 6 are the obvious class but i always like a horse that fires up a bigger beyer on dirt than the others did on turf and that's the 7 Shark. hit the exacta box 7/2,6 and thank me later.
9: everyone's betting the 2 but i'm not. I especially like the 6 and 9 here and can't seperate the two. they both like the poly and distance. bet this exacta box as well and bet the 9 to win/place as he should be 5-1 or so.
$60 for the $1 pick 4. good luck again.
Oh yeah.............parlay that $1596 we won on the early bet at Keeneland to play these. That's not including the tri i gave ya in the 5th as well.
Santa Anita Early
1: 1,3,5 can't seperate them. might want to box this exacta as well
2: 1 and 3 look to be the best here. 3 for upset bet win
3: 4 and 7 look the best
4: 3 looks best. throw the 5 in there as a flyer as well
$24 bucks. good luck
2: 1 and 3 look to be the best here. 3 for upset bet win
3: 4 and 7 look the best
4: 3 looks best. throw the 5 in there as a flyer as well
$24 bucks. good luck
Keeneland Early Pick 4 Sunday
Race 2: 2,3,4,7 can't seperate them. it sucks, but oh well.
Race 3: 5 really jumped beyer wise when on the poly once with best beyer as well. seems to be the right style for this one. However, i'm throwing the 9 in there as a question mark that i can't answer and who has a chance.
Race 4: Love the 8 with style that he hit with on poly and with all the cheap speed and big tail wind on the back. have to throw the 2 in due to pretty handy hold on top beyers and could steal it. the 11 could pick up the pieces if the race blows up completely due to the wind
Race 5: 4 looks to be the one except for lower beyers. however, i'm throwing the 7 in there as i love julian with patrick and this horse has great beyers, runs well off the layoff, and has top beyers. straight exacta the 7/4 and tri play 4/7,8,10/7,8,10
hope that you get it in. good luck to all. I'll be back with late keeneland and early and late Santa Anita. adios.
Race 3: 5 really jumped beyer wise when on the poly once with best beyer as well. seems to be the right style for this one. However, i'm throwing the 9 in there as a question mark that i can't answer and who has a chance.
Race 4: Love the 8 with style that he hit with on poly and with all the cheap speed and big tail wind on the back. have to throw the 2 in due to pretty handy hold on top beyers and could steal it. the 11 could pick up the pieces if the race blows up completely due to the wind
Race 5: 4 looks to be the one except for lower beyers. however, i'm throwing the 7 in there as i love julian with patrick and this horse has great beyers, runs well off the layoff, and has top beyers. straight exacta the 7/4 and tri play 4/7,8,10/7,8,10
hope that you get it in. good luck to all. I'll be back with late keeneland and early and late Santa Anita. adios.
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
Sunday results........
Well........we fared well in a lot of things....just not completed pick 4's. Hopefully you guys bet my tri plays as they both hit......albeit not big, but enough that you could have made some money.
Gulfstream..........got nipped on the wire in the last race by a 5-1 that nosed out my 11-1 to give a payout of $409.70 for $1 and if the 11-1 firster for barclay had hit you know if would have been closer to $1000. bad luck.........hopefully you all played the tri in the 9th. i had it 5 times. next!!!!!!!!
Santa Anita Early- got nipped again in the second race on our $16 pick 4. it paid $108 for a buck so we got shafted a little there too. go ahead and check out the replay of the race. couldn't have been any closer. btw.....the triple i said to play paid $18 for a buck. again......not huge, but positive if you played it the way i said.
Santa Anita Late.---------the 9 got nipped in the first race and then we were winners from there out. pick 4 paid $120. again........real close but just no cigar. you could have played the horses i loved and been 2nd-1st-1st-1st but i guess that's why we play it cus you never know how it works out.
SO- we went 9-12. not too bad. made some gutsy calls and some wimpy ones as well. I tell you what....this sunday, the 8th, i feel like i'm going at least 2 for 3. I hope that you all enjoy my analysis and i would love to get some input from everyone with picks that we have as well.
I don't want to place too much of a focus on the betting aspect of the races as I am the first to admit that I'm all about the beauty and instinct this game requires.............( i tell myself this to justify losing money). Hope to join the TBA soon and offer anything that i can. Including cash for a losing bet cus that's about all i'm good for lately. Good luck all and I'll see you Sunday to try it all over again.
Gulfstream..........got nipped on the wire in the last race by a 5-1 that nosed out my 11-1 to give a payout of $409.70 for $1 and if the 11-1 firster for barclay had hit you know if would have been closer to $1000. bad luck.........hopefully you all played the tri in the 9th. i had it 5 times. next!!!!!!!!
Santa Anita Early- got nipped again in the second race on our $16 pick 4. it paid $108 for a buck so we got shafted a little there too. go ahead and check out the replay of the race. couldn't have been any closer. btw.....the triple i said to play paid $18 for a buck. again......not huge, but positive if you played it the way i said.
Santa Anita Late.---------the 9 got nipped in the first race and then we were winners from there out. pick 4 paid $120. again........real close but just no cigar. you could have played the horses i loved and been 2nd-1st-1st-1st but i guess that's why we play it cus you never know how it works out.
SO- we went 9-12. not too bad. made some gutsy calls and some wimpy ones as well. I tell you what....this sunday, the 8th, i feel like i'm going at least 2 for 3. I hope that you all enjoy my analysis and i would love to get some input from everyone with picks that we have as well.
I don't want to place too much of a focus on the betting aspect of the races as I am the first to admit that I'm all about the beauty and instinct this game requires.............( i tell myself this to justify losing money). Hope to join the TBA soon and offer anything that i can. Including cash for a losing bet cus that's about all i'm good for lately. Good luck all and I'll see you Sunday to try it all over again.
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Santa Anita Late 4/1
here we are:
Race 6: 3 and 9 look real good. 9 especially. the trip looks right and his time on the hill is a full 2 seconds quicker than anyone elses. took some time off so bounce doesn't look likely. i throw the 3 in as well cus you never know how the closers are gonna come out of the dirt transfer.
Race 7: the 1 has the beyer number, the 4 has the workouts and the 7 has a little bit of both. Throw all three in there.
Race 8: down the hill again. i love the 11 but again, i have to throw the 5 and 2 in there for the trip.
Race 9: Mullins' 3 will be 1-1 most likely. i think the 9 is the only other with a shot. I use them both.
so.......3,9/1,4,7/11,5,2/3,9 for $48 again. GOod luck all. (i say all like there's anyone reading this)
so far we're 6 for 8 in the picks for the previous two (with a tri hit thrown in there)....let's see if we can make it 10 for 12.
Race 6: 3 and 9 look real good. 9 especially. the trip looks right and his time on the hill is a full 2 seconds quicker than anyone elses. took some time off so bounce doesn't look likely. i throw the 3 in as well cus you never know how the closers are gonna come out of the dirt transfer.
Race 7: the 1 has the beyer number, the 4 has the workouts and the 7 has a little bit of both. Throw all three in there.
Race 8: down the hill again. i love the 11 but again, i have to throw the 5 and 2 in there for the trip.
Race 9: Mullins' 3 will be 1-1 most likely. i think the 9 is the only other with a shot. I use them both.
so.......3,9/1,4,7/11,5,2/3,9 for $48 again. GOod luck all. (i say all like there's anyone reading this)
so far we're 6 for 8 in the picks for the previous two (with a tri hit thrown in there)....let's see if we can make it 10 for 12.
Early Santa Anita for 4/1
here we go:
Race 1: not a great race. going with 1,2,4,6 and trying to survive
Race 2: I like the 4 quite a bit but not sure what you got there. only other horse i could like would be the 2. this is kind of an odd turf race.
Race 3: I could not take a stand on Coco Belle or Magnificence because of the posts. It's wimpy, but have to use both.
Race 4: i have singled the 2 on my ticket. However, you could throw the 4 and 8 on there if you want to.
Good luck and I'll be back with the late pick 4 soon.
Race 1: not a great race. going with 1,2,4,6 and trying to survive
Race 2: I like the 4 quite a bit but not sure what you got there. only other horse i could like would be the 2. this is kind of an odd turf race.
Race 3: I could not take a stand on Coco Belle or Magnificence because of the posts. It's wimpy, but have to use both.
Race 4: i have singled the 2 on my ticket. However, you could throw the 4 and 8 on there if you want to.
Good luck and I'll be back with the late pick 4 soon.
Gulfstream Pick 4 for 4/1
Hello everyone. Thought that I would come back with what i think will be a winning pick 4 for you all. We're looking at the late pick four from Gulfstream for this lazy cold Sunday here in Jersey. I've got a bold/not bold single in race 8(if that makes any sense) in a very contentious race and the rest are some weaker fields so we'll see what we can do. Enough with the small talk, here we go...........
Race 7- I don't know if I've ever seen an uglier $50k claimer. How's that for a start? I've got the 2,3,5 and 6. Sounds bad i know in a 7 horse race, but like I said......it's ugly. here's my best guess to how the race plays out......3 takes the lead, with 2, 5, and 6 right there outside him. then..........????????????? i don't think the 4 or 6 can hang and there's not enough speed that they should be able to close.
Race 8- Really nice race. Tons of speed for a route race. There's a lot of horses who could be right there, a lot of question marks as well and some very interesting trainer/angle lines. However, i think the 9 (Vacare) should get a nice trip sitting outside and behind the 5 or 6 speed horses and should have plenty under Edgar to march it on in. It's a big field too so you may be able to get 2-1 on the odds as well. bet the 2,6, and 8 behind him as well in the tri's
Race 9- I think the 5 and 6 have a good shot to stalk then pounce on cheap speed. If they freak out and really fly i think the 1 could close with the bug boy and weighing in at 110. There's really no need to go further than that.
Race 10- 1 and 1/8 on the turf for maidens. very interesting. I'm going with one first time starter(#4) from Barclay Tagg who hits at 43% with route debuters and the horse has been training very well. I think the 6 could steal it with Prad0 by getting what should be an easy lead and the 1 and 2 could rail trip it and close hard. I am not going with either (non-coupled!) entry from this guy.....Todd Pletcher? i think both of the entries don't have the turnover they're going to need to get close to the 6. we're going with the ground savers which i always like for young three year olds at 1 and 1/8 or longer on the turf. FYI.......the 14 draws in for Elvis trujillo and kiaran mclaughlin.....Big E and Kiaran are 5 for 5 this year and 4 for 4 at GP this meet with a ROI of $43.50!!!!!!!! i don't like the horse but with that kind of ROI and record......may be worth something if the odds float.
That's it for Gulfstream . I'll be back before 3:30 for Santa Anita early and late. Adios and good luck.
Race 7- I don't know if I've ever seen an uglier $50k claimer. How's that for a start? I've got the 2,3,5 and 6. Sounds bad i know in a 7 horse race, but like I said......it's ugly. here's my best guess to how the race plays out......3 takes the lead, with 2, 5, and 6 right there outside him. then..........????????????? i don't think the 4 or 6 can hang and there's not enough speed that they should be able to close.
Race 8- Really nice race. Tons of speed for a route race. There's a lot of horses who could be right there, a lot of question marks as well and some very interesting trainer/angle lines. However, i think the 9 (Vacare) should get a nice trip sitting outside and behind the 5 or 6 speed horses and should have plenty under Edgar to march it on in. It's a big field too so you may be able to get 2-1 on the odds as well. bet the 2,6, and 8 behind him as well in the tri's
Race 9- I think the 5 and 6 have a good shot to stalk then pounce on cheap speed. If they freak out and really fly i think the 1 could close with the bug boy and weighing in at 110. There's really no need to go further than that.
Race 10- 1 and 1/8 on the turf for maidens. very interesting. I'm going with one first time starter(#4) from Barclay Tagg who hits at 43% with route debuters and the horse has been training very well. I think the 6 could steal it with Prad0 by getting what should be an easy lead and the 1 and 2 could rail trip it and close hard. I am not going with either (non-coupled!) entry from this guy.....Todd Pletcher? i think both of the entries don't have the turnover they're going to need to get close to the 6. we're going with the ground savers which i always like for young three year olds at 1 and 1/8 or longer on the turf. FYI.......the 14 draws in for Elvis trujillo and kiaran mclaughlin.....Big E and Kiaran are 5 for 5 this year and 4 for 4 at GP this meet with a ROI of $43.50!!!!!!!! i don't like the horse but with that kind of ROI and record......may be worth something if the odds float.
That's it for Gulfstream . I'll be back before 3:30 for Santa Anita early and late. Adios and good luck.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Pick 4's for everyone!!!!!!
TBA here I come! I am a Monmouth disciple and I like to fancy myself a pretty good handicapper. Can I join?! Come on....you guys need a serious handicapper on here....not handride....he's too scared!!!!!! jk....let's all make money together. constructive criticism is always welcome. let's start with the NCAA tournament. V Tech final four. how's that for a call!
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