Aqueduct Early Pick 4

This one could be ugly.........that said, it could also pay well. Taking some what i would consider good chances and I tried to keep it as cheap as i could without sacrificing horses i think have a chance. Here we go:

Race 2: I like the 3 but have to respect style and stats for Jerkens on the 1. If the 2's odds get away from the public, might be worth a show bet.
Race 3: the 4 could sit nicely on the rail and be gone. However, what i consider cheap speed(the 7) could push the 4 so I'm also throwing in the 1/1A thinking they sit in 4th and have enough punch to pass the tiring horses in the lane.
Race 4: Weird race. Just heard that the rail was out here so the speed could hold up. I think the 4 is well placed and comes off a front runing victory at a mile in 1:35 with Jean luc picking up the ride. The 7 bumped up her beyers greatly with first route victory last out on dirt and her form looks good for the distance. the 8 for Pletcher is a real question mark as only her first start was on turf and the post is not that great. however, was second in first turf and lost to Moya who has won multiple coming back.
Race 5: Very ugly. I'm going with trainer, track and beyers in this one as there's not much form to go on. I go with the 3,5,6 and 8. I'm holding my arms out to the side right now and tilting my head to the side as if to say "why not?"

So there we go: 1,3/1,4/4,7,8/3,5,6,8 for $48. GOod luck. I'm off the rest of the day to sit by the water, eat some food, and drink some beers. Enjoy.