Keeneland Sunday April 20th

I am in the midst of handicapping the 20th card. I think that there might be a couple of "easy winners" that we can stamp out in the 4 and the 6 (carryover is decent here). I missed posting my play of the day Behindatthebar. I threw out the "rooster" at thelast second for the $252 exacta but still not a bad hit for $20 on the winner who paid $13.60. I'll chat with you all soon.

Monmouth here we come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hello everyone. Well Monmouth has started and most of you should be able to watch it on TVG whether you like it or not. I(like Monmouth Park Blog) have a knack for handicapping this track and I hope to bring about some good hits for you all this meet. Hopefully you all have entered the draw for the tickets to the BC.........i know me and my degenerate friends may need an internet auction site to sell off all of our extra tickets and a home equity loan to pay for them up front.

Well I'm here and i'm looking for hits. Let's make some money everyone........and remember, if i post it here, i'm playing it.

Results from Sunday

Some days you hate this game. Our pick 4 (albeit one that ended up chalky) got beat by a DQ of the 4 in the third race. The track played a little quirky too with the closers not hitting the board as much. I have to say that the late pick 4 looked ugly to me and due to a previous engagement I didn't have the energy to walk through the whole thing. I got through three races with 4 horses in the first two and 3 in the third. Turns out that I would have had the first three legs. They paid: 20.20, 6.00, and 16.80 respectively. That being said......I don't know if I would have had the $30 winner in the last for a pick 4 that paid $6,279 for a buck.

Oh how it would have been sweet to have bet it though. BUT.....when you get beat by a DQ in the first one, you get the feeling that someone doesn't want you to be betting that day. Then you start questioning betting $200 on a pick 4 that you're not going to get to see cus you're gonna be out having dinner with your beautiful girlfriend. Don't get me wrong, I had the funds after that $1596, $775, $117, $175 and $317(non-published) hit from the day before......but still....i was just feeling a little too disgusted after losing a pick 4 by a DQ.

I'll be back soon to put a couple together for Churchill this Saturday and I hope to be cashing some money with you all soon.

BTW........just got my second tax form in three days from 4njbets.com for my hits over the past three weeks. I hope that some of you joined me as well. ADIOS.

Sunday 4/29 Hollywood Early

Hey everyone. Getting back to it after a few days off (blogging that is....not betting). I was out all day yesterday but played the pick 4's at Hollywood and hit the first of a $45 bet for $317. Sorry I didn't get that one out to ya. Oh well. You will all have to give me a little time to get all my s*@% together as I'm still learning this stuff and I take it pretty seriously if I'm gonna put them out for anyone to see.

I think that I've finally figured out Hollywood. I say finally like the meet's been going for weeks not days! Here's the breakdown but bear in mind(as always), these are animals and are a little unpredictable, but I've gone back and reviewed all the races so far and these things seem to prove reliable:
6 Furlong Races: Being close is not bad. Lone speed has been ok and stalkers have been right there if there are few of them and the fractions are fair(22, 23 range). However!.... beware if two or more horses have the speed and duel. It seems as though every race that has had a split of 21 or so has died and a deep closer has won the race....not stalkers either, just heavy closers.
6 and 1/2 to 7 furlongs: Bet the stalkers or proven closers even if there might be lone speed. They get a long run at the front runners and have been very reliable in winning these races. (Watch this one for the picks we put up for the early pick 4....we're trying to beat some chalk baby!!!!!!!!!)
Mile to 1 and 1/8: Stalkers have done very well. Here's how it breaks down fraction wise: 23/24, 48/1:12........speed and stalkers killing it. However, change that to 46/1:10,1:11, and stalkers and heavy closers are killing it. BTW,,,,,,this seems to be true for both class and crap.
6F Turf or so: lone speed and heavy closers. not a lot of these races but just in case
Turf Routes: unless you are absolutely lone speed.............be at the back of the pack. That being said. The rails been out until today. I would say to add a stalker to the mix(obviously only in well match field without a lone quality speed) as the shorter the course, the better the speed looks

Take all that in and convert it to the Pick 4. Here we go:
Race 1: 6,4,2 the 6 boasts top beyers, a 1:10 bullet a week ago, and Sadler hitting at 36% on 44 starters with cushion. However, he's the speed and if we want to stick with our style that fits, I think we have to go with the 4. He's got the style, the beyers, a 46 flat work a week ago and should come mowing them down in the lane. No idea with 2 as was bad in gate last and closed strong. Throw him in
Race 2: 1,6 The one could be a beast. Boast top last beyer (2 for 2 on turf), great style and great jock in GG. Would single except that we might need a closer to stick to the style and pace should be fast. THrow in the 6 to cover us as the best closer.
Race 3: 4,5,9 Love the 5 for the style, 2nd off and draws GG again. I think that he's the only true closer. Throw in the 9 and the 4 as legit stalker closers who could sweep and win.
Race 4: 1,2,5 A lot are pitching this as a duel between Greg's Gold(5) and Areyou talkintome(2) which could be the case. but the 1 is popping sick workouts for Julio and could sit the perfect trip for what has been winning at this distance.


2,4,6/1,6/9,5,4/1,2,5 for $54 bucks. Play it strong as we could get some upsets.

!!!!!!!!!Adjustments to early Hollywood pick 4

Hey everyone. Some key scratches have forced me to adjust my picks for race 2 and 6. \

Race 2: 1,3,7,8 the loss of the two hurts and i like the works and the stats of the 1 and 3 next best to the 2 so we'll throw them in there.
This makes the early pick 4: 1,2,3/7,8,1,3/1,5/3,6,7,9 for $96 sorry for the cost but it had to be done.

Race 6: the 7 has scratched which was our top pick. We instead go with the 3 and the 6 who tends to run better on the cushion and has been working well.
This makes the late pick 4: 6,5,1/3,6/6,5/3,7,9,12 for $48.

Good luck all.

Hollywood Late pick 4 for 4/26.........

Alright.....i'm not going down three in a row....or one in a row depending on what happened in the early pick 4....which i know is a win:-)

Here we go:

Race 5: 1,5,6 not in that order. the 5 is the horse i like the best. next is 6. then 1. if the 5's odds jump bet $10 quinella 5/6,1.
Race 6: i see no reason to go beyond the 7. however, the "experts" are picking the 3 all over so i guess that i have to as well.
Race 7: i love the 6. Declan's Moon (the 5) has been training like a monster. I hate to do it but I have to throw him in there.
Race 8: Could easily go with the 9. However, the experts are all choosing the 12 so we have to throw him in there. and we might as well throw in the 7 and the 3 cus of Dutrow's numbers with the starters.

Ok.....so it's 1,5,6/7,3/6,5/9,7,3,12 for $48. or you can go with a $10 pick 4 with 5/7/6/9. Good luck everyone if you're playing it. Adios.

Hollywood Early for 4/26

here we go:

Race 1: we go three deep in a 5 horse field.......but i think that we have to. we go with 1,2,3 with my favorite being the three. throw in a $10 quinella 3/2,1 and thank me on friday.
Race 2: 2,7,8 and cross your fingers. an ugly race really so no reason to bet it on it's own
Race 3: the 1 could steal it at short odds (Flores and Frankel 6 for 11...not too bad) and the 5 could close if he can't. could it be any easier?
Race 4: gotta go deeper here. 3,6,7,9. put a nice win bet on the 3 if the odds are 2-1 or greater....looks like he's got a great shot.

So there we are: 1,2,3/2,7,8/1,5/3,6,7,9 for $72. I like this one. Good luck playing it.