3: #6 I think Easy Single with First Defense
4: 4,11,14 Love the 11 and 14. Don't know what you have off the Poly in from Cali. with the 4
5: 3,4 WAY too much speed in here and with the track drying out, the 3 and 4 should be stalking and closing very nicely. I can't split them up.
6: 4,8 I LOVE the 8. I also love the 4. There's a lot of speed and fades at shorter so i think that if you can sit back a little and close into it you should be sittin pretty. Which these two will be.
$1 Pick 4: 6/4,11,14/3,4/4,8 for $12. There it is. The second one. I LOVE IT! and have already placed my wager. Good luck everyone!
Oh yeah.........................anyone play that exacta and/or tri bet on the 3rd? $18 Exacta hit for $2 and a $97 tri for $2. Hope you did!
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Derby Day Pick 4 Races 1-4
Ok. Here we go. $1 pick 4 for $48 bucks to start the day. Yes............I have no cajones.
Race 1: I love the 4. I also don't know what we've got with the 7. And if these two cook each other, the 2 will be right there. Go with 2,4,7. Also.........a very good tri bet as well. The 7 should throw some value in as well.
Race2: THere's no speed in this race. Again.........track is sealed as of last update and with that condition yesterday, it was a merry go round. Therefore, we take the horse with seconditis throwing on the blinkers (#2) and the horse on the outside who has shown decent speed in his two races and should like the wet being from Vindication.
Race 3: In the pick 4 we go with First Defense(6). I can't get around his speed and the ability to carry it. I think he just sits outside Spin Master, cooks him, and then runs on. Not very exciting. BUT...........play the exacta or tri of 6/2,8,9/2,8,9. I think that Spin Master might fade and leave it open for the 8 and 9 to overtake him in the lane. Play it and win!
Race 4: A lot of question marks here so we're going to spread with who should be the only logical choices: 3,4,11,14. I like the 14 and the 11 as the speed..............the other two are there because they've run the distance and look like they have a chance given the speed bias that may develop.
SO...........2,4,7/2,10/6/3,4,11,14 for $24. I think this should get us all started pretty well. GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh.......i've already entered my ticket as I promise that I always will if i post something. Latas.
Race 1: I love the 4. I also don't know what we've got with the 7. And if these two cook each other, the 2 will be right there. Go with 2,4,7. Also.........a very good tri bet as well. The 7 should throw some value in as well.
Race2: THere's no speed in this race. Again.........track is sealed as of last update and with that condition yesterday, it was a merry go round. Therefore, we take the horse with seconditis throwing on the blinkers (#2) and the horse on the outside who has shown decent speed in his two races and should like the wet being from Vindication.
Race 3: In the pick 4 we go with First Defense(6). I can't get around his speed and the ability to carry it. I think he just sits outside Spin Master, cooks him, and then runs on. Not very exciting. BUT...........play the exacta or tri of 6/2,8,9/2,8,9. I think that Spin Master might fade and leave it open for the 8 and 9 to overtake him in the lane. Play it and win!
Race 4: A lot of question marks here so we're going to spread with who should be the only logical choices: 3,4,11,14. I like the 14 and the 11 as the speed..............the other two are there because they've run the distance and look like they have a chance given the speed bias that may develop.
SO...........2,4,7/2,10/6/3,4,11,14 for $24. I think this should get us all started pretty well. GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh.......i've already entered my ticket as I promise that I always will if i post something. Latas.
Derby Day Notes
The Dirt looks like a merry go round with big price winners on Oaks Day that were all speed or middle move types. This will be key in handicapping today. In addition, despite the fact that the rail was down on the hedge (and will be again today), the turf played almost the same exact way. Albeit, the races on the turf yesterday were a little odd with a couple of first time turfers going, and the fact that the rain didn't start until the 5th race or so. So I am going to assume that the turf will play similarly.............even though I don't really have any idea as t0 why. I'll be back with the Pick 4's in a minute. Good luck all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Keeneland Sunday April 20th
I am in the midst of handicapping the 20th card. I think that there might be a couple of "easy winners" that we can stamp out in the 4 and the 6 (carryover is decent here). I missed posting my play of the day Behindatthebar. I threw out the "rooster" at thelast second for the $252 exacta but still not a bad hit for $20 on the winner who paid $13.60. I'll chat with you all soon.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Monmouth here we come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hello everyone. Well Monmouth has started and most of you should be able to watch it on TVG whether you like it or not. I(like Monmouth Park Blog) have a knack for handicapping this track and I hope to bring about some good hits for you all this meet. Hopefully you all have entered the draw for the tickets to the BC.........i know me and my degenerate friends may need an internet auction site to sell off all of our extra tickets and a home equity loan to pay for them up front.
Well I'm here and i'm looking for hits. Let's make some money everyone........and remember, if i post it here, i'm playing it.
Well I'm here and i'm looking for hits. Let's make some money everyone........and remember, if i post it here, i'm playing it.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Results from Sunday
Some days you hate this game. Our pick 4 (albeit one that ended up chalky) got beat by a DQ of the 4 in the third race. The track played a little quirky too with the closers not hitting the board as much. I have to say that the late pick 4 looked ugly to me and due to a previous engagement I didn't have the energy to walk through the whole thing. I got through three races with 4 horses in the first two and 3 in the third. Turns out that I would have had the first three legs. They paid: 20.20, 6.00, and 16.80 respectively. That being said......I don't know if I would have had the $30 winner in the last for a pick 4 that paid $6,279 for a buck.
Oh how it would have been sweet to have bet it though. BUT.....when you get beat by a DQ in the first one, you get the feeling that someone doesn't want you to be betting that day. Then you start questioning betting $200 on a pick 4 that you're not going to get to see cus you're gonna be out having dinner with your beautiful girlfriend. Don't get me wrong, I had the funds after that $1596, $775, $117, $175 and $317(non-published) hit from the day before......but still....i was just feeling a little too disgusted after losing a pick 4 by a DQ.
I'll be back soon to put a couple together for Churchill this Saturday and I hope to be cashing some money with you all soon.
BTW........just got my second tax form in three days from 4njbets.com for my hits over the past three weeks. I hope that some of you joined me as well. ADIOS.
Oh how it would have been sweet to have bet it though. BUT.....when you get beat by a DQ in the first one, you get the feeling that someone doesn't want you to be betting that day. Then you start questioning betting $200 on a pick 4 that you're not going to get to see cus you're gonna be out having dinner with your beautiful girlfriend. Don't get me wrong, I had the funds after that $1596, $775, $117, $175 and $317(non-published) hit from the day before......but still....i was just feeling a little too disgusted after losing a pick 4 by a DQ.
I'll be back soon to put a couple together for Churchill this Saturday and I hope to be cashing some money with you all soon.
BTW........just got my second tax form in three days from 4njbets.com for my hits over the past three weeks. I hope that some of you joined me as well. ADIOS.
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Sunday 4/29 Hollywood Early
Hey everyone. Getting back to it after a few days off (blogging that is....not betting). I was out all day yesterday but played the pick 4's at Hollywood and hit the first of a $45 bet for $317. Sorry I didn't get that one out to ya. Oh well. You will all have to give me a little time to get all my s*@% together as I'm still learning this stuff and I take it pretty seriously if I'm gonna put them out for anyone to see.
I think that I've finally figured out Hollywood. I say finally like the meet's been going for weeks not days! Here's the breakdown but bear in mind(as always), these are animals and are a little unpredictable, but I've gone back and reviewed all the races so far and these things seem to prove reliable:
6 Furlong Races: Being close is not bad. Lone speed has been ok and stalkers have been right there if there are few of them and the fractions are fair(22, 23 range). However!.... beware if two or more horses have the speed and duel. It seems as though every race that has had a split of 21 or so has died and a deep closer has won the race....not stalkers either, just heavy closers.
6 and 1/2 to 7 furlongs: Bet the stalkers or proven closers even if there might be lone speed. They get a long run at the front runners and have been very reliable in winning these races. (Watch this one for the picks we put up for the early pick 4....we're trying to beat some chalk baby!!!!!!!!!)
Mile to 1 and 1/8: Stalkers have done very well. Here's how it breaks down fraction wise: 23/24, 48/1:12........speed and stalkers killing it. However, change that to 46/1:10,1:11, and stalkers and heavy closers are killing it. BTW,,,,,,this seems to be true for both class and crap.
6F Turf or so: lone speed and heavy closers. not a lot of these races but just in case
Turf Routes: unless you are absolutely lone speed.............be at the back of the pack. That being said. The rails been out until today. I would say to add a stalker to the mix(obviously only in well match field without a lone quality speed) as the shorter the course, the better the speed looks
Take all that in and convert it to the Pick 4. Here we go:
Race 1: 6,4,2 the 6 boasts top beyers, a 1:10 bullet a week ago, and Sadler hitting at 36% on 44 starters with cushion. However, he's the speed and if we want to stick with our style that fits, I think we have to go with the 4. He's got the style, the beyers, a 46 flat work a week ago and should come mowing them down in the lane. No idea with 2 as was bad in gate last and closed strong. Throw him in
Race 2: 1,6 The one could be a beast. Boast top last beyer (2 for 2 on turf), great style and great jock in GG. Would single except that we might need a closer to stick to the style and pace should be fast. THrow in the 6 to cover us as the best closer.
Race 3: 4,5,9 Love the 5 for the style, 2nd off and draws GG again. I think that he's the only true closer. Throw in the 9 and the 4 as legit stalker closers who could sweep and win.
Race 4: 1,2,5 A lot are pitching this as a duel between Greg's Gold(5) and Areyou talkintome(2) which could be the case. but the 1 is popping sick workouts for Julio and could sit the perfect trip for what has been winning at this distance.
2,4,6/1,6/9,5,4/1,2,5 for $54 bucks. Play it strong as we could get some upsets.
I think that I've finally figured out Hollywood. I say finally like the meet's been going for weeks not days! Here's the breakdown but bear in mind(as always), these are animals and are a little unpredictable, but I've gone back and reviewed all the races so far and these things seem to prove reliable:
6 Furlong Races: Being close is not bad. Lone speed has been ok and stalkers have been right there if there are few of them and the fractions are fair(22, 23 range). However!.... beware if two or more horses have the speed and duel. It seems as though every race that has had a split of 21 or so has died and a deep closer has won the race....not stalkers either, just heavy closers.
6 and 1/2 to 7 furlongs: Bet the stalkers or proven closers even if there might be lone speed. They get a long run at the front runners and have been very reliable in winning these races. (Watch this one for the picks we put up for the early pick 4....we're trying to beat some chalk baby!!!!!!!!!)
Mile to 1 and 1/8: Stalkers have done very well. Here's how it breaks down fraction wise: 23/24, 48/1:12........speed and stalkers killing it. However, change that to 46/1:10,1:11, and stalkers and heavy closers are killing it. BTW,,,,,,this seems to be true for both class and crap.
6F Turf or so: lone speed and heavy closers. not a lot of these races but just in case
Turf Routes: unless you are absolutely lone speed.............be at the back of the pack. That being said. The rails been out until today. I would say to add a stalker to the mix(obviously only in well match field without a lone quality speed) as the shorter the course, the better the speed looks
Take all that in and convert it to the Pick 4. Here we go:
Race 1: 6,4,2 the 6 boasts top beyers, a 1:10 bullet a week ago, and Sadler hitting at 36% on 44 starters with cushion. However, he's the speed and if we want to stick with our style that fits, I think we have to go with the 4. He's got the style, the beyers, a 46 flat work a week ago and should come mowing them down in the lane. No idea with 2 as was bad in gate last and closed strong. Throw him in
Race 2: 1,6 The one could be a beast. Boast top last beyer (2 for 2 on turf), great style and great jock in GG. Would single except that we might need a closer to stick to the style and pace should be fast. THrow in the 6 to cover us as the best closer.
Race 3: 4,5,9 Love the 5 for the style, 2nd off and draws GG again. I think that he's the only true closer. Throw in the 9 and the 4 as legit stalker closers who could sweep and win.
Race 4: 1,2,5 A lot are pitching this as a duel between Greg's Gold(5) and Areyou talkintome(2) which could be the case. but the 1 is popping sick workouts for Julio and could sit the perfect trip for what has been winning at this distance.
2,4,6/1,6/9,5,4/1,2,5 for $54 bucks. Play it strong as we could get some upsets.
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